La Niña Alert: Heightened Flood Risk Expected in Southeast Asia This Fall
Meteorological agencies worldwide have issued heightened alerts for La Niña, with a rapid onset expected in the October-December period of 2025. This phenomenon, characterized by unusually cold ocean temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific, is predicted to occur with a 70-71 percent probability.
La Niña years typically bring heavy rainfall 4.6 times more frequently than El Niño phases. This increased rainfall, combined with rising Mekong River levels and monsoon-driven sea level rise, could lead to compound flooding in the Mekong Delta. Regions already experiencing marine heatwaves or anomalous thermal gradients may encounter amplified flood and storm risks during La Niña.
The expected La Niña event is classified as weak and short-lived, unlike the prolonged 2020-2023 La Niña. Despite its reduced intensity, it is expected to strengthen the westward push of warm surface waters, invigorating rainfall across the western Pacific basin and amplifying flood risk in Southeast Asia. The Central region of Vietnam, particularly provinces from Thanh Hoa to Khanh Hoa, is prone to flash floods and landslides during La Niña. The Red River Delta may face urban inundation if heavy rains coincide with late-season typhoons.
La Niña is expected to occur between October and December 2025, with a probability of 70-71 percent. While the projected event is weak and short-lived, it poses significant flood and storm risks in Southeast Asia. The probability of La Niña easing is predicted to increase through the winter, dropping below 55 percent in early 2026.
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