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In an unexpected twist, tariffs have significantly influenced new-vehicle sales in April 2025, leading to a temporary surge followed by a subsequent slowdown. According to J.D. Power's latest forecast, consumers rushed to purchase vehicles in March and April 2025 ahead of anticipated tariff-driven price increases, resulting in approximately 173,000 extra vehicles sold during those months.

This surge, known as a "pull-forward effect," was driven by buyers accelerating their purchases to avoid higher costs caused by tariffs. However, the months following April saw a "payback effect," where sales were subdued because some demand had already been satisfied earlier. For instance, June 2025 sales were lower relative to an adjusted baseline due to this earlier surge, not necessarily reflective of underlying vehicle demand. This distortion makes interpreting sales trends challenging, as the tariff-related pre-buying artificially inflated March and April sales and deflated subsequent months' sales.

The average monthly finance payment for new vehicles in April is expected to reach $742, an increase of $19 from April 2024. The average new-vehicle retail transaction price in April is expected to reach $45,764, up $887 from April 2024. Total new-vehicle sales are expected to increase by 10.5% year on year in April 2025, equating to 1,519,897 units.

The average used-vehicle price is trending towards $28,725, up $200 from a year ago. The average interest rate for new-vehicle loans is 6.8%, down 0.18 percentage points from a year ago. Fleet sales are projected to decline 7.8% from a year ago, accounting for 15.5% of total light-vehicle sales.

Consumers have been accelerating their vehicle purchases due to the prospect of future vehicle price increases due to tariffs. As a result, consumers are on track to spend nearly $55.8 billion on new vehicles this month, 21.2% higher than a year ago. The seasonally-adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for total new-vehicle sales is expected to be 17.9 million units.

Plug-in hybrid vehicles are on pace to make up 2.3% of sales, and electric vehicles (EVs) are expected to account for 8.7% of sales. The vehicle details: Internal-combustion engine vehicles are projected to account for 76.1% of new-vehicle retail sales, while full-hybrid sales are expected to reach 12.6%.

Average trade-in equity is expected to rise slightly, reaching $8,313, up $328 year on year. The average manufacturer incentive spend per vehicle is on track to reach $2,808 (€2,466). Multiple carmakers have committed to keep the manufacturer's suggested retail price (MSRPs) stable through the early summer months.

US final assembly vehicles are expected to make up 51.8% of sales in April. Trucks and SUVs are on pace to account for 82.1% of new-vehicle retail sales. With tariffs leading to vehicle production shifts, supply-chain disruptions, and increased new-vehicle prices—by nearly $2,000 per vehicle, according to consultancy estimates—the market has experienced added pressure and complications in inventory management and sales forecasting in 2025.

The increased tariffs have caused a ripple effect in the industry, particularly in the aerospace sector, where components and materials are subject to the tariffs.
In the finance sector, analysts are closely monitoring the economic impact of these tariffs on consumer spending, especially in areas like fashion-and-beauty, food-and-drink, and real-estate.
The surge in new-vehicle sales in March and April 2025, driven by the "pull-forward effect," has also impacted the business of gadgets and smartphones, as many consumers delayed their tech purchases in anticipation of higher costs.
The fashion-and-beauty industry has seen a shift in consumer behavior, with more people opting for budget-friendly options rather than luxury brands due to concerns about future finance costs.
The home-and-garden industry has reported a decline in sales as consumers redirected their spending towards vehicles and other necessities in response to the tariffs.
Investors are keeping a close eye on the stock market, with companies in the technology, travel, sports, and other sectors experiencing fluctuation due to the economic uncertainties caused by tariffs.
The racing industry, including auto-racing, grand-prix, and horse-racing, has been affected by the tariffs, as the increased costs have impacted the sponsorship deals and overall funding.
The weather forecasting industry has noted a slight decrease in investments, as some fundings that would have gone towards research and development were redirected towards covering tariff-related costs.
The sports industry, including sports-betting, basketball, MLB, NHL, soccer, football (American football), tennis, golf, and Mixed Martial Arts, has seen a change in revenue streams due to the tariffs.
The NFL, NBA, WNBA, and NCAAB are all reporting a decline in broadcasting rights fees, as tariffs have led to a drop in corporate sponsorships.
The sports analysis sector has noted an increase in focus on the economic impact of tariffs on sports, with analysts looking at how changes in revenue streams could affect player salaries and team operations.
The weather sector has seen an increase in demand for weather-related gadgets, such as smartphones with advanced weather apps, due to the increased importance of accurate weather forecasting in decision-making.
The real-estate market has reported a slowdown in investment, particularly in commercial properties, as businesses reassess their expansion plans in light of the tariffs.
The tech sector, including companies specializing in artificial intelligence, robotics, and renewable energy, are looking into alternative manufacturing sites to reduce their dependence on tariff-subject components.
The travel industry is anticipating a drop in international tourism due to the tariffs, as travel becomes more expensive for foreign visitors.
The vehicle market is expected to see a shift towards electric vehicles (EVs) and plug-in hybrid vehicles, as consumers look for alternatives to internal-combustion engine vehicles to save on long-term costs.
The automotive industry is working on solutions to mitigate the effects of tariffs, such as revising production strategies, developing new supply chains, and negotiating with governments for tariff relief.
In the context of these challenging economic conditions, analysts are closely watching the impact of tariffs on various sectors, looking for potential opportunities and risks, and providing insights to help businesses navigate the complexities of this evolving landscape.